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Powell's Speech at Jackson Hole, US Interest Rate Outlook

by Son Stephen 2023. 8. 26.
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Summary:


Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled additional interest rate hikes in his speech at the Jackson Hole meeting on August 25, 2023, urging more caution in the fight against inflation.
Powell said that inflation is still above target, but two consecutive months of good data will help build confidence that inflation is on a sustained downward trajectory. He also said that economic growth may need to slow to determine whether to slow the pace of rate hikes.
Recent market expectations are that there is a small chance of an additional rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September, but there is a 50/50 chance of a final hike at the November meeting.


My opinion:


Personally, I estimate that inflation will continue in the United States this year and that the United States will maintain a rate hike stance until the end of this year.
Inflation has not yet reached target, and economic growth is still strong. In addition, there is concern that the Fed could trigger a recession if it raises interest rates too much to curb inflation.
Therefore, it is expected that the Fed will raise interest rates carefully to curb inflation, but to avoid a recession.

So, I think, since the FED will hike the interest rate, I would suggest you to buy FI(Fixed Income bond of the USD) by the end of this year.


Warning:


But I will give you a warning sign, this is your choice, and my personal opinion is given for your reference for your investment.

Regards
Stephen Son

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